A small field of seven lines up for this mares’ maiden hurdle over 2m3½f on good to soft ground. These races are often won by mares already showing solid placed form rather than newcomers, and the market usually centres around the obvious contenders. That looks to be the case again here.
On the HRB ratings, Joans Choice comes out on top with a total of 302, narrowly ahead of Sallyville Lady (285) and Biglesisback (275). The rest of the field sit well behind, suggesting this is very likely to be decided between the top three.
Sallyville Lady will probably start favourite and is easy to understand. She has consistent form figures of 3-2-3, carries the best official rating in the race and comes from the powerful Dan Skelton yard, which has an excellent record placing mares in races like this. On raw ability she sets a clear standard.
However, the race shape adds an interesting angle. Comment Shaper indicates two likely front runners and strong early pace pressure. Both Sallyville Lady and Biglesisback have shown tendencies to race prominently or force the pace, which could lead to them taking each other on earlier than ideal.
If that happens, the race may favour something sitting just off the speed and finishing late.
That scenario points directly towards Joans Choice. She arrives with progressive form of 3-2-1, tops the HRB ratings, and her run style suggests she can sit handy without needing to force the issue. Importantly, she has already shown she can finish strongly, which could prove decisive if the pace collapses late on.
Biglesisback is experienced and consistent but has already had plenty of chances and arrives off a pulled up effort, which raises questions.
The remainder of the field look well short on both form and ratings and would need dramatic improvement to feature.
The main danger remains Sallyville Lady, who could simply be the best mare in the race. But if the pace develops as expected, Joans Choice looks the one most likely to capitalise.
Selection: Joans Choice
Confidence: Medium