This is a typical big-field 0-100 handicap hurdle where plenty have chances on paper, but not many make proper appeal once you dig into the numbers and the likely shape of the race.
The starting point is Aswellasabentley. He tops the HRB ratings on 231.3, and that is not a narrow lead either. In this grade, a clear edge on the figures matters. He also has the right profile for how this race is likely to unfold. Comment Shaper flags him up as a strong late finisher, and that looks important here.
The pace setup suggests there is only one likely front runner, but the front-running strength is weak and the overall shape points towards a race that could set up for something finishing off best rather than one dominating from the front. In a 20-runner handicap over 2m4½f on yielding ground, you want a horse that will keep finding when others have cried enough. Aswellasabentley looks the best fit.
His recent form is not spotless, but that is often the case in races like this. What matters is whether there are signs that the horse is coming back into form, and his latest third was a step in the right direction. As a 5yo, he is also one of the few in the field open to a bit more progress. That gives him an edge over exposed rivals who look stuck on their marks.
The obvious danger is Jaynemax. He arrives in better recent form than most and ran well when second last time. He is high enough on the ratings to be taken seriously and should be competitive again. The concern is that, in a race where finishing effort could decide it, he does not look quite as strong as Aswellasabentley in the closing stages.
Jumble Light is another solid contender. He has been running consistently enough and should give another good account, but he looks more like a place player than the one with the strongest winning punch.
Sunwalk will attract support because he is prominent in the market and may get an easy lead, but the shape data is not especially kind to him. If the likely front runner is not strong enough to boss the race, that leaves him vulnerable late on.
There are a few at bigger prices with bits and pieces of appeal, but most either look weak finishers, badly exposed, or hard to trust. In this sort of race, it pays to keep it simple and side with the horse who has the best blend of ratings, run style and scope.
Last year’s winner scored off 84 and the previous year’s winner off 85, so there is a fair argument that lower weights have been favoured in recent renewals. That is the main negative around Aswellasabentley, as he is carrying more weight than ideal for the trend. Even so, trends are only useful when the horses fit them properly, and this year’s field does not look strong enough to put me off the best candidate.
Verdict
Aswellasabentley is the pick. He is top on HRB, shaped like the right horse for the race scenario, and has the strongest late-finishing profile among the principals. In a contest full of unreliable types, that is enough.
Selection
Aswellasabentley
Confidence
Medium