A small field of seven goes to post for this Class 4 handicap chase and the early pace looks guaranteed. The Comment Shaper flags three front runners — Geryville, No But I Will and Empty Nest — creating a strong early race shape. With pressure up front, the tempo should be honest from the start.
On ratings the race revolves around No But I Will and Geryville, who sit clearly top of the HRB totals.
Geryville (FR) will likely head the market and comes here after a solid win. He is a course-and-distance winner and produced the best last-run rating in the field. However, he carries top weight of 12-2 and the shape of the race may not be ideal. He often races prominently or leads, and with other pace angles in the line-up he may not get things his own way.
No But I Will looks better suited to how this contest could unfold. His HRB rating of 315.5 is the highest in the race, and his recent form figures of 131 show he arrives in peak condition. Crucially, the Comment Shaper marks him down as a strong late finisher, a useful trait if the leaders start to feel the early pace turning for home.
William Cody is consistent and should be thereabouts, but the data suggests he can weaken late, which is not ideal in a race likely to be run at a proper gallop.
Of the closers, Arthurs Quay and Rath Gaul Hill both have late finishing profiles, but each arrives with questions — the former now twelve years old, and the latter lacking the recent form of the main contenders.
The race shape suggests the leaders may take each other on, and that could play perfectly into the hands of No But I Will, who combines the best overall rating with the right finishing profile.
Selection: No But I Will
Confidence: Medium – The likely pace scenario suits, but if Geryville gets an uncontested lead he could prove difficult to reel in.