This looks a fairly typical Irish novice handicap hurdle where the ratings tell a fairly clear story. Harty Cup tops the HRB figures by a decent margin (253.9) and also brings the best last run rating (88.4) into the race. In this grade that sort of figure usually makes a horse the one to beat.
He arrives here after finally getting his head in front last time and that performance suggested the penny may have dropped. The way he finished that race is important because Wexford’s two miles on soft ground tends to place an emphasis on staying on strongly rather than producing a sharp turn of foot. His run style also looks reliable – typically racing mid-division before keeping on. In races like this, consistency of run style can be an advantage.
The race shape data suggests there is no obvious front runner, meaning the early tempo could be fairly steady. That scenario should suit horses that travel comfortably through the race and finish their race off, which again points towards Harty Cup.
The main threat looks to be Westoftignes. He sits second on the HRB totals and is flagged by the Comment Shaper as one of the strongest late finishers in the field. If the race turns into a proper test from the second last he is the one most likely to be closing late. The slight concern is his unpredictable run style, as hold-up horses around Wexford can sometimes leave themselves with too much to do.
The Dancen Kid is another with a positive finishing profile and may run better than his price suggests. However, his overall ratings still leave him with a bit to find with the top two.
Others such as Harrys Dream and Good Deal look fairly exposed at this level and their recent finishing patterns suggest they can weaken when the race begins in earnest.
In short, the ratings, recent form and run style all point in the same direction. In a race lacking a clear pace angle, siding with the horse holding the best recent performance figure and strongest overall rating makes the most sense.
Selection: Harty Cup
Confidence: Medium.