This Class 4 handicap hurdle looks set up for a properly run race, and the pace map is the first place to start. Comment Shaper highlights three confirmed front runners and multiple prominent racers, producing a strong early pressure score and a high risk of a pace collapse. In races like this, those forcing it early often pay the price late on, especially around Exeter where the long run from the final hurdle exposes anything that has gone too hard.
That immediately puts the focus on strong finishers coming from off the pace.
Eton Mes – The One That Fits
Eton Mes sits clear on the HRB ratings (305.6) and importantly his run style fits the projected race shape perfectly. He is typically ridden patiently and is flagged by Comment Shaper as a strong late finisher. With several pace angles in the race, the likelihood is the leaders cut each other’s throats early, setting things up for something stalking in the rear half of the field.
His recent form also suggests he is progressing. The sequence 9444113 shows a horse that has found his level in handicaps and continues to run solid races. For a five-year-old with relatively few miles on the clock, further improvement is still possible.
The Main Dangers
Madajovy will attract support after a couple of placed efforts and he is another horse expected to finish strongly. The concern is that his overall HRB rating sits well below the top of this field, suggesting he may still need a little bit more to get his head in front.
Noble Blue also profiles as a closer and arrives off a solid run. However, his overall profile lacks the consistency of the selection and the ratings don’t quite back him up as the most likely winner.
Snapdance and Firm But Fair both rate well on the numbers but their likely forward positions in a strongly run race raise doubts. Horses that race prominently could find themselves vulnerable once the pace pressure begins to bite turning for home.
Verdict
Everything about the likely shape of the race points towards a late closer picking up the pieces, and the horse who combines that run style with the best set of HRB ratings is Eton Mes.
If the expected pace battle unfolds, he should be the one finishing strongest up the Exeter hill.
Selection: Eton Mes
Confidence: Medium–Strong 🏇