The 3.22 at Wexford is only an eight-runner handicap hurdle, but it is still a race with a bit of tension to it. The market will naturally focus on One Big Boum, and on pure HRB numbers that makes perfect sense. He tops the figures on 308, arrives in winning form, and looks the most obvious horse in the field.
The problem is that obvious does not always mean value.
From an HRB ratings angle, One Big Boum has the best overall profile, but the Comment Shaper makes this race a little less straightforward. The likely setup is a moderate shape, with a single front runner and low collapse risk. In plain terms, this is not shaping up to be a mad gallop where everything falls apart turning for home. It looks more like a steadily run race where position and timing will matter.
That brings the rest of the field into it.
The one who stands out as the main alternative is Give Him A Chance. He is not far off the favourite on the ratings, posting 277, and he comes here off the back of a win. More importantly, his Comment Shaper profile is solid. He is marked as stable, his recent run style is consistent, and he is one of the strongest finishers in the race. In a contest lacking depth, that finishing effort could be the key factor.
There is an obvious concern. Hold-up horses are always vulnerable in races where the pace is only ordinary. If they stack them up in front and kick at the right time, closers can be left with too much to do. That is the main case against Give Him A Chance, and it is not something to brush aside.
Even so, he still makes more appeal than the favourite at the prices.
One Big Boum may well prove the best horse in the race, but his style profile is not totally clean and his recent tactical patterns have been mixed. For a horse likely to go off short, that is enough to make him opposable. He is the one to beat, but not necessarily the one to back.
Jabbar is another with a decent chance. He has strong late-finishing traits and a workable profile, but top weight is enough to make life tougher. He looks more likely to run well than to win.
Tir Og has some appeal at a bigger price. The HRB figure gives her a place squeak and she does not lack for stamina at the finish, but her profile is less reliable and she looks more of an each-way type than a likely winner.
The rest look up against it unless the race turns messy.
This does not look the strongest handicap Wexford will stage all year, and that matters. In ordinary races, siding with the horse most likely to finish off best is often the right way to go. That points firmly towards Give Him A Chance.
He is not bombproof, and the shape is not ideal for a closer, but he looks the one with the best balance of current form, reliable profile and finishing power.
Verdict: Give Him A Chance
Danger: One Big Boum
Confidence: Medium