Nick Rockett Holds the Tactical Edge
This is a small but high-quality five-runner chase over 3m2f, and on paper it revolves around two horses – Nick Rockett and Gerri Colombe. The rest look to be playing for places unless something unusual happens.
The HRB ratings immediately point to Nick Rockett. His 440 total is comfortably the best in the race and reflects a horse arriving in serious form after three straight wins. Willie Mullins’ nine-year-old is thriving and looks to be progressing as a staying chaser.
The Comment Shaper also highlights a key tactical angle. There is no obvious front runner, which creates a weak pace scenario. In small fields like this, races often become tactical and the horse sitting closest to the pace usually gets first run turning for home.
That is a significant advantage for Nick Rockett, who regularly races prominently. If Paul Mullins allows him to stride on or sit just behind the lead, he could control the race before the closers have a chance to land a blow.
Gerri Colombe is the obvious danger. On pure class he may well be the best horse in the field and he remains a top-level performer for Gordon Elliott. However, his run style can leave him mid-division early, and in a steadily run race that could mean giving away first run to a rival already in full flight.
He will be finishing strongly, but tactical races over staying trips often favour the horse already travelling at the head of affairs.
Perceval Legallois is the interesting outsider. He finishes his races well and has solid figures, but on the numbers he still sits a fair way behind the top two and needs them both to underperform.
The veteran Roi Mage, who won this race in 2022, is now 14 years old and looks past his best, while The Gradual Slope is simply outclassed at this level.
Everything about this race points to Nick Rockett. He has the best HRB rating, the strongest recent form, and the ideal tactical profile for the expected race shape.
If the race unfolds as the data suggests, he should be in the perfect position to strike before the closers arrive.
Selection: Nick Rockett
Confidence: Strong