This looks a fairly ordinary Class 5 staying chase on paper, but the HRB ratings and race shape tell a very clear story.
The standout on the numbers is Voleur De Terres, who tops the HRB totals on 259, comfortably clear of the rest. More importantly, the recent ratings are strong for this level and the horse arrives here in form after back-to-back wins. In races like this, consistency is often half the battle and Voleur De Terres is one of the few runners actually progressing.
The Comment Shaper race shape adds another important angle. Getaway King is the only confirmed front runner, which means he should get an uncontested lead if jumping well. Exeter is a track where controlling the pace can be a major advantage, particularly in lower grade staying handicaps where many runners struggle to finish their races.
However, there is a key caveat. While Getaway King may get the run of the race, the behavioural data suggests he can weaken late, and this is a stiff three miles on good to soft ground. If he overdoes it even slightly, he could easily set things up for a stronger stayer sitting just behind the pace.
That scenario brings the focus straight back to Voleur De Terres. The horse typically races prominently, which is ideal given the predicted race shape. He should sit just behind the leader, travel comfortably and have first run when the race begins to develop turning for home. In this grade, that profile is often the winning one.
Girls Best Friend rates second on HRB figures and comes from the Venetia Williams yard, which always commands respect in staying chases. The problem is reliability. The form profile is mixed and the Comment Shaper flags a tendency to weaken late, which is not ideal in a stamina test like this.
Steal The Moves is another with a recent placed effort but the behavioural pattern is poor, with repeated signs of weakening under pressure. In a race where several runners already struggle to finish, that is not a trait to trust.
The rest of the field looks largely exposed or out of form, and none match the combination of recent performance figures and consistency shown by the market leader.
Verdict
This race looks set up for a horse sitting just off the pace and finishing strongest, and that points firmly toward Voleur De Terres. The HRB ratings mark him down as the clear standout and his current form suggests he is still ahead of the handicapper.
The main danger is the tactical angle if Getaway King gets an easy lead, but overall the stronger profile belongs to the favourite.
Selection: Voleur De Terres
Confidence: Medium–Strong
Strong ratings and solid recent form, but the lone front runner prevents it being a maximum confidence play.