Eight go to post for this 2m4½f novice chase and the market has already narrowed things down to the main four. The HRB ratings tell a very similar story, with Lucky Lyreen (279), Slanagaibhgoleir (274), Ayiko (273) and I Am Lorenzo (272) dominating the figures.
When the numbers are this tight it usually pays to dig deeper into recent performance and race shape.
Ratings and Recent Form
Slanagaibhgoleir brings the strongest last run figure in the field (80.2). Gordon Elliott’s runner is consistent and represents powerful connections, but his finishing profile can be a little mixed. Comment Shaper shows he sometimes progresses but can also weaken late, which is not ideal in a race likely to be decided in the closing stages.
Lucky Lyreen tops the overall HRB totals but that figure looks slightly inflated by older efforts. His latest rating (60) is well below the best recent numbers in the race and that tempers confidence.
I Am Lorenzo is the class horse on official ratings (130) and has a very solid profile. His running style of sitting just behind the pace and staying on strongly fits the likely shape of the race, so he has obvious claims.
Race Shape
The Comment Shaper points to one likely front runner – Herja. However, she is a big outsider and unlikely to set a searching gallop.
That means the race could turn tactical before the tempo lifts late. In that scenario, strong closers tend to come into play, and three runners stand out for their finishing strength:
Ayiko
I Am Lorenzo
Raglan Road
Of those, only Ayiko and I Am Lorenzo have the ratings to fully capitalise.
The Selection
Ayiko looks the one whose profile fits the race best.
His recent rating is one of the strongest in the field, he sits right near the top of the HRB totals, and his strong finishing style is perfectly suited to the projected race setup. If the leader steadies things early and the race develops late, Ayiko is the runner most likely to pick them off.
Verdict
With ratings tightly grouped, the edge goes to the runner whose recent form and race shape profile align best.
Selection: Ayiko
Confidence
Medium
The top four are closely matched on ratings, so there is little margin for error, but the race setup gives Ayiko a slight tactical advantage.