This Class 4 staying handicap looks competitive on paper, but once you strip it back using the HRB ratings and Comment Shaper, one horse comes out clearly on top.
Race Shape
The Comment Shaper suggests a weak early pace with no confirmed front runner. That normally means the race will develop into a tactical affair where track position turning for home becomes important.
Several runners in here are hold-up types with strong late finishes, so whoever is ridden most efficiently through the middle part of the race could gain a decisive edge.
HRB Ratings
The ratings make a strong case for Ladronne, who tops the table with a 338.9 total, comfortably ahead of the field.
He also brings the best recent run figures, including a 91.2 last-run rating, and his overall profile shows consistent performance rather than a one-off spike.
Form figures of 1612412 show a horse holding his level well in similar races.
Ladronne
Despite being a 12-year-old, Ladronne is running as well as ever. The Comment Shaper highlights him as a strong late finisher, regularly staying on when others have cried enough.
The 7lb claim from Oscar Palmer also helps reduce the burden and makes his weight very workable in this grade.
In a race lacking obvious pace, the key will be not getting too far back, but if he sits within striking distance turning for home his finishing effort should put him right in the mix.
Main Threats
Hawthorn Street is the obvious danger. He sits second on the HRB ratings and could improve from his recent run, which looked very much like a prep after a layoff. With point-to-point form, the trip should suit.
Libre De Choeur also has solid recent form and arrives off a win, but his profile suggests inconsistency, and the ratings have him a notch below the top two.
Verdict
When the ratings, recent form and finishing profiles are combined, Ladronne looks the most reliable horse in the race. He has the strongest HRB figure, solid recent runs and proven stamina for the trip.
If the race is run even slightly honestly, his finishing kick should bring him right into play late on.
Selection: Ladronne
Confidence: Medium