The 4.32 at Wexford is not a race to overcomplicate. It is a low-grade handicap chase on soft ground, and that usually means one thing: keep it simple, side with the horse most likely to handle the conditions, jump well enough and still be finishing when others have cried enough.
That brings me to Finnians Row.
He is not miles clear on the raw HRB totals, but he is close enough to the top to make no difference in a race like this. More importantly, he brings the right overall profile. He has winning form over this course and distance, he arrives in decent nick, and his recent figures suggest he is holding his level better than most of these.
The HRB ratings have Tsavo Park and Lake Chad marginally ahead, but only just. In these exposed handicap chases, being top-rated by a sliver is not enough on its own. You need a horse with a realistic set-up, and Finnians Row looks to have exactly that.
The Comment Shaper view is a big part of the case. The race shape points to a single front runner, but not a particularly strong one. That matters. At Wexford, on soft ground, weak pace pressure up front can leave the race open for a horse that travels in the right spot and finds a bit late. Finnians Row is marked down as a prominent runner and, crucially, a strong finisher. In a field full of horses that often weaken or fail to see things out properly, that is a major positive.
This is also a race full of negatives once you start digging. Lake Chad is solid enough and comes here off a good second, but he is an 11-year-old and hardly bombproof. Tsavo Park has the figures to go close, but he remains a bit difficult to trust. Chosen Diamond is respected and should run his race, though he does not look obviously ahead of the assessor. Others have bits and pieces of form, but plenty are either out of form, inconsistent, or look the sort to give way when the race gets serious.
Finnians Row is not an exciting handicap blot. He does not need to be. He just looks the horse with the fewest holes in his case.
He has the course form. He has a workable mark. He has a run style that should suit the likely shape of the race. He has the late strength to capitalise if this turns into a test from the back of the last. In this grade, that is often all you need.
There is no point dressing it up beyond that. In a race where most of the field come with obvious doubts, Finnians Row stands out as the most sensible winner.
Selection: Finnians Row
Confidence: Medium