Hunter chases are rarely pretty and this Exeter contest looks exactly the sort of race where stamina and attitude will matter far more than raw ability. Over just beyond three miles on good to soft ground, the field is packed with exposed older horses and only a few arrive with any real momentum.
The race shape is interesting. Comment Shaper points to one likely front runner with several prominent racers pressing behind, producing a fairly honest gallop. That should stop this turning into a crawl and puts the emphasis firmly on staying power up the long Exeter straight. Horses that finish their races strongly should come right into it late on.
On the figures Crawter heads the HRB ratings by a clear margin. His latest run produced a big number and that alone puts him firmly in the mix. The issue is that the figure stands slightly in isolation and there isn’t much depth behind it. In hunter chases that kind of rating spike can sometimes flatter, especially when stepping into a tougher staying test.
Enqarde is the old warrior of the race and arguably the class act on official ratings. He has plenty of back form and usually races prominently. The concern is that he has shown a tendency to travel well and then weaken late, which is never ideal around Exeter where the final climb can expose tired legs.
Market support has centred around Macklin, and the profile does make some sense. He tends to be ridden patiently and usually stays on at the finish. That running style fits the likely race shape, although on the raw HRB totals he doesn’t quite match the top two. At a short price he looks more solid than spectacular.
The runner who stands out from a race-shape perspective is Gateau De Miel. Comment Shaper marks him down as a strong late finisher and his recent runs show a horse that keeps finding rather than folding when the race develops. In a contest where the pace could be honest from the outset, that trait could prove decisive.
If the leaders begin to tire turning for home, this looks the type of race where a patient ride and a strong finish will be the winning formula. Gateau De Miel fits that profile better than most and looks the one most likely to be finishing best up the hill.
Selection: Gateau De Miel (FR)