The 1.45 at Exeter is a 2m½f Class 4 maiden hurdle with a big field of 16 runners, but once you strip away the noise the race revolves around a fairly small group of realistic contenders.
The HRB ratings point firmly towards Dutch Corner, who tops the figures by a clear margin with a 311.8 total rating, well ahead of the rest of the field. In races like this, that sort of gap is difficult to ignore.
Race Shape
The Comment Shaper suggests a strong early pace, with Southfield Finale and Elusive Pb likely to push on early. A contested lead is expected, creating solid tempo from the outset.
That matters because Exeter’s stiff finish often exposes horses that go too hard early. When the pace lifts, the race can easily fall apart late.
The runner best suited to that scenario is Dutch Corner, who is flagged as the only strong late finisher in the field.
His form figures of 333 show a horse that has been knocking on the door and learning the job. More importantly, his running style suggests he will sit off the pace and finish strongly, which looks ideal given the predicted race setup.
The Main Dangers
Constellation Walk is the obvious threat on the numbers. He sits second on the HRB totals and comes from a strong yard, but his race pattern is slightly concerning. He often travels into contention before weakening late, which could be exposed if the pace is strong.
My Boy Aaron has plenty of experience and consistency but has shown similar tendencies of not quite finishing his race strongly, which raises doubts in a race likely to be run at a good gallop.
Elusive Pb is interesting as a lightly raced type but could be part of the early pace battle, which may leave him vulnerable in the closing stages.
Verdict
When the ratings, pace setup and finishing profiles are combined, Dutch Corner stands out as the most solid option in the race. He has the best figures, the right run style for the expected pace, and comes from a yard that knows how to place horses in these races.
If the early leaders go a stride too quick, this could set up perfectly for a horse finishing strongly from just off the pace.
Selection: Dutch Corner
Confidence: Strong 💪