This looks like a typical big-field Class 5 staying handicap where the pace and stamina will decide the outcome more than raw ability. Exeter is a stiff track and races over nearly three miles here often fall apart late, so horses that finish strongly are usually the ones to side with.
The HRB ratings put Special John clear on top with a total of 307. He comes here in good form after a sequence of solid runs and clearly has the ability to win off his current mark. However, his running style is usually prominent, and with two likely front runners in the race the tempo could be stronger than ideal for him. In races over this trip at Exeter, those racing too close to the pace can often pay for it in the closing stages.
Looking at the race shape, the Comment Shaper points towards a solid early pace with several prominent racers lining up behind the leaders. The key point is that the strongest late finishers in the field are Square Du Roule and Lokis Mischief, with both regularly finishing their races well.
Lokis Mischief is an obvious contender. He arrives after a good second and has Harry Cobden booked, which always attracts attention in races at this level. His running style from midfield should allow him to settle before making a move late on, and the data suggests he often finds plenty at the finish.
However, the horse whose profile fits this race best is Square Du Roule. He is a consistent hold-up performer who regularly stays on strongly at the finish. His HRB rating is close to the top of the field and his running style looks ideally suited to the predicted race shape. In a race where several runners have a tendency to weaken late, having a horse that finishes strongly is a major advantage.
Others such as Bredon Hill Dart and Watchoutitscookie look capable of running well, but both have shown signs of weakening late in similar races and may struggle if the pace becomes demanding.
This race should be run at a fair gallop and if that happens it will favour those coming from off the pace. With that in mind, Square Du Roule looks the runner most likely to be finishing best up the long Exeter straight.
Selection: Square Du Roule
Confidence: Medium