This Class 5 bumper at Exeter doesn’t look deep on paper and the data backs that up. The HRB ratings point strongly towards a two-horse race, with Fine Tuning (263.8) and Ink Black Heart (260.4) miles clear of the rest. After those two there is a sharp drop in ability, meaning the winner is very likely to come from that pair unless one of the unraced runners is above average.
Fine Tuning brings the highest overall rating after finishing second on debut for Anthony Honeyball. It was a solid run and the yard knows how to ready one for these races. However, the comment data suggests he can flatten out late, which could be important in what looks a steadily run contest.
The race shape analysis shows no clear front runner, with only moderate early pressure expected. In bumpers like this the race often turns into a sprint from the home turn, which makes finishing speed a key factor.
That is where Ink Black Heart stands out.
The Daniel Skelton runner produced the best last-run figure in the field (68.8) and is the only runner flagged as a strong late finisher by the Comment Shaper data. On debut he shaped well, staying on strongly and looking as though there was more to come. With normal improvement second time out, he sets a solid standard.
Skelton and Harry Skelton are also a reliable combination in these types of races and their runners in bumpers are rarely lacking in fitness or intent.
Of the newcomers, River Kwai from the Paul Nicholls yard is the obvious unknown. Nicholls can introduce a useful bumper horse and Harry Cobden taking the ride catches the eye. That said, without market support it’s difficult to side with an unraced runner over two horses that already have solid form.
The rest of the field would need significant improvement to get involved based on the figures.
In a race lacking depth and likely to be run at a steady tempo, the horse with the strongest finishing profile often proves decisive. On the evidence available, Ink Black Heart looks the one most likely to deliver that finishing kick.
Selection: Ink Black Heart
Confidence: Medium