This is a straightforward Class 4 on paper, but the shape of the race makes it more tactical than it first appears. Two forward-goers in Vol Royale and El Curamach should ensure an honest gallop without it turning into a burn-up. That matters here — Hereford’s long, stamina-sapping straight tends to expose anything that goes too hard too soon.

The setup points firmly towards a horse that can travel just behind the pace and finish off strongly.

Top Coeur heads the market and is the obvious “could be anything” type. Lightly raced, open to improvement, and representing a yard that knows how to place one. But there’s a catch — he hasn’t yet fully proved he sees out this trip under pressure, and his run style has been a bit in-and-out. At a short price, you’re taking a bit on trust.

Castelfort is more straightforward. Solid handicap form, stays well, and usually runs his race. He should get the right setup and will be thereabouts again, but he does look more exposed than some and may just find one better treated.

The one that makes the most appeal is Emerald Breeze. He’s been shaping like a winner waiting to happen, and crucially, he’s one of the few in this field with a genuinely strong finishing profile. In a race where the pace looks honest rather than messy, that’s a big edge. If he’s within striking distance turning in, he’s the one most likely to be finishing best.

Vol Royale and El Curamach could have their say for a long way, but both look vulnerable late on given the likely pressure up front.

Verdict: This should be set up perfectly for a closer, and Emerald Breeze is the one with the right profile to take advantage.

Winner: Emerald Breeze
Main danger: Castelfort
Question mark favourite: Top Coeur?