This is a small-field Class 2 handicap where the shape of the race matters more than anything else. There’s a clear tactical angle: Sarab Star is the only confirmed front-runner and is drawn in stall 1. Around Kempton over 7f, that combination is often decisive.

He’s a progressive 4yo who is thriving, already proven over course and distance, and arrives in form. From the inside draw, Tom Marquand should be able to control the tempo without much pressure. In a seven-runner race lacking obvious pace challengers, that puts Sarab Star in a very strong position.

Mount Athos is the obvious danger. He’s won this race three years running, which tells you everything about how well he handles these conditions. He’ll likely sit just behind the leader from stall 2 and try to pounce late. The concern is whether he’s quite as sharp as he once was, but returning to this race could easily spark a revival.

Apiarist is the other one to note. He’s in form and finishes strongly, but he’s likely to be held up. In a race that may not be run to suit, that leaves him needing luck and a stronger pace than looks likely on paper.

The rest all have bits and pieces of form, but they either lack the tactical setup or need the race to unfold differently. Tiger Crusade, God Of War and Serengeti all look dependent on a stronger gallop, while Golden Mind returns from a break and may just need the run.

This looks straightforward tactically. If Sarab Star gets an uncontested lead, he should take catching.

Verdict: Sarab Star makes all. Mount Athos the main danger, with Apiarist running on late for minor honours.