There’s no obvious pace angle, which matters more than usual over 7f here. Without a front-runner to stretch things, this is likely to turn tactical—steady early, then a sprint. In that scenario, track position and a turn of foot become decisive, especially from a low draw.
That immediately puts the focus on New Monarch. He sets the clear standard on form, has already shown he can finish strongly, and is drawn perfectly in stall 2 to sit handy without doing too much. The Balding–Murphy combination won this race last year and looks primed to repeat the dose. In a race lacking depth, he doesn’t need to improve—just reproduce.
The one with the potential to make it interesting is El Nay. He’s less exposed, drawn even better in stall 1, and shaped with enough promise to suggest there’s more to come. If this turns into a tactical sit-and-sprint, he’ll get the run of the race on the rail. The question is whether he has the class yet to match the favourite’s proven level.
Spirit Of Saxony is the only other who makes any appeal, but he looks more of a longer-term prospect and may just lack the sharpness needed in this setup.
The rest would need significant improvement or a messy race to get involved.
In short, everything about the likely race shape, draw, and proven ability points one way.
Verdict: New Monarch wins.
El Nay is the only one with the profile to give him something to think about, but the favourite sets the standard and holds all the key advantages.