The shape of the race is key. Ballywood is the only natural front runner and is likely to get an uncontested lead. In a better race that would be a major angle, but there’s a problem: he doesn’t finish his races. Even in a weak contest like this, you need something up your sleeve from the last fence, and he rarely finds much.

That brings the focus firmly onto the two obvious ones — Flash In The Park and Livys Lad.

Both are well treated for the grade, both will sit handy off a modest pace, and both have the profile of horses that should be winning races like this. The difference is subtle but important. Livys Lad is still on the upgrade and has the scope to improve again, but he has a habit of weakening when it matters. In a race where very few are finishing strongly, that’s not a small concern.

Flash In The Park isn’t bombproof either, but he’s the more solid and reliable of the pair. He arrives in better recent form, is proven in this type of race, and is tactically versatile enough to sit right where he needs to be. In a steadily run contest, that counts for plenty.

Hobie is the only one who could get involved if the front two underperform, but he returns from a break and lacks the same consistency. The rest would need the race to fall apart, which looks unlikely given the expected pace setup.

This should turn into a straightforward, tactical affair — not a searching test, just a case of who is in the right place turning for home and who can find a bit extra from there.

Flash In The Park looks the one most likely to do exactly that.

Verdict: Flash In The Park to win.