It looks the sort of race where race shape and positioning will matter as much as raw ability.
On paper, Sunshine Diamond is the most likely pace angle. He’s expected to go forward and could get an uncontested lead early, but this is not a weakly run affair. There are several runners who like to sit handy, and that should ensure the tempo builds through the middle part of the race. The overall shape points to a solid gallop rather than a crawl, which brings stamina and finishing effort into play.
That scenario slightly tempers enthusiasm for those who need things their own way up front. Sunshine Diamond is consistent and tactically favoured, but there’s a fair chance he’ll be taken on late by stronger finishers. Ludlow does reward positive rides, but in a race with this much pressure behind the leader, it often pays to be on something that can travel and quicken off a decent pace.
The one that fits that bill best is Don’t Mind If I Do. He tops the adjusted ratings and has been shaping like a horse ready to win from this sort of mark. His tendency to race a bit freely is the main concern, but if he settles, the race sets up very well for him. He travels strongly, stays the trip, and should be finishing better than most.
Windsor Blue is the obvious danger. She improved markedly to win over course and distance last time and remains unexposed. The track clearly suits, and there could be more to come, but she did look slightly vulnerable late on previously, and a stronger pace here may test her a bit more.
Byzantium comes from a yard that excels in placing these types and has a progressive profile, but he may not get quite the same run of the race as in his recent wins. He still has to prove himself in a more competitive, better-run handicap.
For those looking beyond the obvious, Royal Way makes each-way appeal. He’s been running consistently without winning, but his finishing effort stands out. In a race where the leaders could come back late, he’s the type to pick off tired horses and sneak into the frame, possibly better if things fall right.
Elsewhere, Walkadina looks exposed, Krak is hard to trust, and Stoner’s Choice and Golden Glance both need significant improvement or race circumstances to fall perfectly.
In summary, this looks a race likely to be run at a proper tempo, and that should suit a progressive, well-handicapped runner who can travel and finish. Don’t Mind If I Do ticks those boxes and is the percentage call. Windsor Blue is respected for her course form, while Royal Way is the one to keep onside for place purposes in a race that could set up for a closer.