This is a proper handicap: deep field, mixed profiles, and a pace setup that matters more than usual.
The shape looks straightforward on paper. One likely front-runner in Mountain Molly should get an uncontested lead, with only mild pressure behind. That doesn’t scream collapse, so the race is unlikely to fall apart for extreme hold-up types. Instead, it should favour runners sitting just off the pace — those able to travel, hold position, and quicken late without needing everything to go wrong in front.
That immediately puts the focus on Brookside La, who ticks most of the right boxes. He’s still on the upgrade, comes here off a strong piece of form at Haydock that’s already working out, and shapes like this trip suits ideally. In a race lacking certainty, he’s the one with the clearest profile of a horse still ahead of his mark.
Judicial Deference is the obvious danger. Four wins on the bounce tells its own story, but he’s now up in class carrying top weight. That’s the question — not whether he’s in form, but whether there’s any margin left. He’s respected, but this is tougher.
Speiriuil is another progressing type worth keeping onside. Back-to-back wins, strong finishing effort, and still unexposed at the trip. The slight concern is tactical — she’s not always ideally positioned — but if she lands in a handy spot, she’s firmly in the mix.
For solid each-way players, Eloi Du Puy stands out. A course-and-distance winner who finishes his races strongly, he brings a reliable profile into a race where many don’t. He’s unlikely to be far away if things fall right.
At bigger prices, Wasthatok is interesting. He’s race-fit, arrives here quickly after a recent run, and has a clear pattern of finishing strongly. In a race where others may need things to fall perfectly, he at least brings momentum.
The key negative angle in the race centres on the hold-up horses. There are plenty of them — Bathgate, Kingston Narcissus, and others — but without a strong pace, they risk giving themselves too much to do. Kelso doesn’t always reward waiting tactics unless the race collapses, and the setup here suggests it may not.
In summary, this looks like a race for a well-positioned improver rather than a late closer. Brookside La fits that mould best and is the percentage call. Behind him, it’s competitive — with Judicial Deference, Speiriuil and Eloi Du Puy all having solid claims depending on how the race unfolds.
Verdict: Brookside La to win
Each-way: Wasthatok
Saver: Eloi Du Puy