This is a small-field Class 2 staying chase that will be decided as much by positioning as ability.
The Comment Shaper flags a clear tactical angle: Cadell is the sole front runner in a race lacking natural pace pressure. That immediately points to a controlled gallop, and at Kelso over this trip, that can make life very difficult for hold-up horses who rely on a strong tempo.
However, Cadell is no dominant force. He led throughout to win this race last year, but his recent form is patchy and his finishing effort has been weak. With top weight to carry, he looks vulnerable even if granted an easy lead.
That shifts the focus to those likely to sit just behind the pace.
Aboutdamntime heads the HRB ratings and arrives here off a win. His run style is adaptable, and he finishes his races strongly without needing a complete collapse. In a race lacking depth and likely to be run at an even tempo, that combination is ideal. He should be close enough to strike turning in.
Blakey Boy is the solid alternative. Progressive and consistent, he is likely to be ridden handily and could get first run if this turns tactical. The concern is whether he finds enough off the bridle late on.
Fortunate Man is the class angle and the market leader, but everything about his profile suggests he will be played late. In a race with limited pace, that is far from ideal, and he may simply run out of ground.
Dare To Shout and Breeze Of Wind are both strong finishers, but both are hostage to a race shape that looks unlikely to suit.
In summary, this is unlikely to be a searching test. It should favour a horse with tactical speed who can sit close to the lead and still finish.
Aboutdamntime fits that bill best and looks the most solid option in a race where others have more obvious drawbacks.
Selection: Aboutdamntime (IRE)
Confidence: Medium