This isn’t a race that will be won by brilliance — it’ll be won by efficiency.
The Comment Shaper makes one thing clear: there is no pace angle. No front runner, no obvious leader, and only modest early pressure. That immediately downgrades hold-up merchants who need a strong gallop to bring their stamina into play. It also means positioning will be crucial turning for home.
On raw HRB figures, Ballycamus stands out. He’s clear top-rated and comes here in decent nick. The first-time cheekpieces suggest they’re looking for a bit more, and he’s solid enough to run his race. The issue is whether there’s any improvement left — he looks more exposed than progressive.
The market has latched onto Elysian Knight, but that looks shaky. His profile is littered with “unlucky” and “stayed on” efforts, and in a race lacking pace, that late run could come too late again. He’s short enough for a horse that needs things to fall right.
Some Scope has been given a chance by Timeform after going too hard last time, but this is a very different setup. Without a strong pace to attack, he may not get the same opportunity to redeem himself unless ridden with restraint — which isn’t certain.
The race then starts to tilt towards something a bit more straightforward.
Havaila is the most solid option in the field. He’s consistent, keeps finding off the bridle, and crucially doesn’t rely on a complete pace collapse to be effective. Off a workable mark, and with fewer question marks than most, he looks the one most likely to run his race from start to finish.
Others, like King Turgeon and Almazhar Garde, have bits of form that give them a squeak, but both look either regressive or too dependent on race circumstances going their way.
In a race full of ifs and buts, Havaila is the percentage call. He may not be flashy, but he’s reliable — and that often counts for plenty in races like this.
Selection: Havaila (IRE)
Confidence: Medium