This might only be a six-runner Class 5, but don’t be fooled—this is a race where the shape matters more than the raw ability.
The key angle is the pace. There are two confirmed front runners in here and both like to get on with it. Prairie Queen is the obvious one—she’s made the running in her last four—but the problem is clear: she doesn’t finish her races. Time and again she travels like the winner and then empties. In a race where she’s unlikely to get an uncontested lead, that weakness is magnified.
Bobbis Beauty isn’t much better from a tactical point of view. She can go forward, she can sit handy, but she’s not straightforward. The first-time cheekpieces might sharpen her up, but they could just as easily drag her into the early battle. She does at least have a finishing effort in her, which makes her more dangerous than Prairie Queen, but she’s far from solid.
All of this points to a strong early gallop, and that’s where the race could be decided.
When these mares go too hard up front at Taunton over this sort of trip, they tend to come back to the field. The data backs that up here with a solid shape rating and a clear suggestion of pressure. It’s not guaranteed to collapse, but the setup is there.
That brings Ryders Rock right into play.
She’s the only one in the field with a proper late finishing profile. Her recent run styles show she’s being ridden with more patience, and crucially, she’s been finishing her races off. In a contest where others are likely to weaken, she’s the one who should be staying on strongest.
On ratings, she’s already top of the pile. Add in the likely pace scenario and she becomes the most logical winner in the race.
The rest look exposed or unreliable. O’Gradys Hill, Miss Fedora and Fox Wallace would all need things to fall perfectly, and even then, they don’t bring the same finishing strength.
This race sets up for something to come from off the pace and pick up the pieces late. Ryders Rock fits that bill better than anything else in the field.
Selection: Ryders Rock
Strength: Strong