The 2.30 at Southwell is a small-field novice handicap chase, but it’s a race where the pace setup should decide everything.
There are two habitual front runners in here, most notably Catchim, who does his best work forcing it. The problem is he doesn’t finish his races — and with another pace angle in opposition, he’s unlikely to get things his own way. This looks set to be an honest gallop rather than a crawl, and that immediately puts pressure on anything that needs an easy lead.
Shadowfax Of Rohan and Classical Sting both sit prominently and will be close enough to strike, but neither is straightforward. Shadowfax has been tactically all over the place and comes with a low confidence profile, while Classical Sting, despite topping the HRB ratings, shapes more like a grinder than a decisive finisher. In a race that could be set up for something finishing late, that matters.
That brings us to Known Warrior. He’s not flashy on the figures, but he is the only runner in the field consistently flagged as finishing his races strongly. His usual mid-division position is ideal here — he should get a clean tow into the race while the front end applies pressure to itself.
With the pace unlikely to collapse completely but strong enough to expose weak finishers, this looks tailor-made for a horse who can travel and then pick up late. Known Warrior fits that bill better than anything else in the race.
He doesn’t have much margin for error and isn’t bombproof, but tactically he makes the most sense.
Selection: Known Warrior (FR)
Verdict: Medium