This is not a race to get cute with. It is a modest Class 6 over 7f and the sensible starting point is the top of the HRB ratings, where Taskheer and Gundogan dominate.
The Comment Shaper points to Maury as the only likely front runner, but he is flagged as a weak leader who often folds. That matters because it should ensure a proper target for the rest without creating a brutal pace collapse. In other words, this looks set up for a horse that can sit within range and finish, not for a tearaway or a hostage to fortune coming from miles back.
That is why Gundogan makes most appeal. He is only a shade behind Taskheer on the main HRB totals, but his recent figures are strong and his run style looks ideal for the way this race should develop. The Comment Shaper marks him down as a strong finisher, and in a race full of exposed, inconsistent types that is a major plus. He does have a habit of starting slowly, which is the obvious concern from stall 9 round here, but if he breaks on terms he looks the one with the best chance of picking them off late.
Taskheer is the danger. He tops the ratings, has stall 1, has course-and-distance form and comes here with a rock-solid profile for this level. The issue is that he has had plenty of chances and is starting to look more dependable than deadly. He should run well, but he may again find one finishing better.
Miss Moonshine is respected after her latest win, but she does not look quite as trustworthy. So Chic and King Of The Dance have late-finishing angles that make them interesting at bigger prices, though both need things to fall right and neither has the same overall substance as the two principals.
Last year’s winner was a battle-hardened older handicapper rather than an improver, and this year’s race has the same feel. You do not need to reinvent the wheel. Stick with the proven form, trust the ratings, and side with the horse most likely to be doing his best work late.
Selection: Gundogan
Main danger: Taskheer
Confidence: Medium