This is not a race to get too clever with.
The starting point is the HRB TimeWise Master ratings, and they point firmly towards the top of the market. Teardrops is ranked 1 on 265.2, with Sherlock the clear second choice on 257.6. Given how these ratings tend to perform, the winner is far more likely to come from that pair than from the rest.
From there, the Comment Shaper helps sharpen the view. The shape of the race suggests a strong pace, with two front runners likely to go on and enough pressure behind them to ensure this is run properly. That matters over 6f at Newcastle, because when the pace is strong, races can set up for something sitting off it and finishing best late.
That points straight at Teardrops.
He is not dependent on forcing the pace, his run style looks solid, and the comment profile says he is a strong finisher. In this sort of race, that is exactly what you want. He is also a course-and-distance winner, arrives with a consistent profile, and makes plenty of sense as the one most likely to be produced at the right time.
Sherlock is the danger. He is the only horse who really makes sense as an alternative on the ratings, and he comes here after a win. But his style looks a little less straightforward and there is a chance he gets caught up closer to the pace than ideal. In a race where the pace looks likely to be strong, that could leave him vulnerable in the closing stages.
Of the bigger-priced runners, Velvet Skies is the only one worth a second look. He has the late-finishing profile to benefit if the leaders overdo it, but he is not backed up by the same level of ratings strength as the first two. That makes him more of a place or each-way angle than a win bet.
D Flawless could try to make use of the inside draw, but the problem is obvious enough: there looks to be competition for the lead. In a race where the front end may not get things its own way, that is not the ideal setup for a horse likely to be involved early.
Last year’s winner came from near the head of the market, and that fits the general feel of this race too. This looks much more likely to be won by a solid, obvious contender than by a shock result.
Verdict
Teardrops is the percentage call. He is top-rated, has the right profile for the likely race shape, and looks the runner most likely to be finishing best when it matters.
Selection: Teardrops
Saver: Sherlock
Confidence: Medium