Lincoln verdict: Rogue Diplomat is the one to beat
The 3.32 at Doncaster is the Lincoln, one of the toughest handicap miles of the spring, and this year’s renewal looks exactly what it should be: deep, competitive and full of runners with some sort of chance. That said, there is no point overcomplicating it when the ratings give a clear lead.
On the HRB TimeWise Master figures, Rogue Diplomat comes out rank 1, and that matters. These ratings tend to be led by the winner more often than not when the top-ranked horse has a proper edge, and in this case he does. His total of 420.1 puts him well clear of the rest, with Shout the only runner close enough to be taken seriously as the main alternative.
Rogue Diplomat is also the right type for a race like this. He arrives on the back of four straight wins, so he is not a horse trying to bounce back to old form. He is thriving now. His latest run figure is the best in the field and his overall profile suggests there is still more to come. In a handicap like the Lincoln, current momentum counts for plenty.
The Comment Shaper backs up the idea that this could suit him. There is no obvious front runner, only moderate early pressure, and the collapse risk is low. That is important because it suggests this may not turn into a strong end-to-end gallop that sets things up for a deep closer. Instead, it could become a race for a horse who can hold a position, travel smoothly and finish well without needing everything to fall apart in front of him. Rogue Diplomat looks that horse.
Shout is the main danger. He is rank 2, he has course-and-distance form, and his finishing profile is solid. If the pace does end up stronger than expected, or if Rogue Diplomat gets caught in the wrong place at the wrong time, Shout is the one most likely to pick up the pieces. He makes perfect sense as the saver.
La Botte is respected, but he is only rank 3, and that is a line worth taking seriously. With these ratings, the bulk of the value and strike rate sits with the top two. You need a very good reason to put a rank 3 horse ahead of them, and I do not see one here. The same applies to Eternal Force, who is progressive and likeable, but still does not quite measure up on the main figures.
There are also a few recent race trends worth noting. The last four winners were aged 5, 5, 7 and 5, so this has not been a race dominated by lightly raced 4yos. That is a small check against Rogue Diplomat and Shout, both of whom are four. But trends are secondary to what is in front of us now, and Rogue Diplomat’s current form and ratings edge are strong enough to override that concern.
The obvious risk is that the Lincoln is never straightforward. Twenty-two runners, a straight mile, and plenty of traffic problems can make fools of the best handicapping angles. Rogue Diplomat is stepping into a much rougher environment than the races he has been winning. That is the case against him. But even after allowing for that, he still comes out the most likely winner.
This is not the race to get too clever. The clear pick is Rogue Diplomat, with Shout the only one I would fear seriously.
Selection: Rogue Diplomat
Danger: Shout
Confidence: Medium