This revolves around the top two on the HRB ratings, as it usually does. Brave Knight (Rank 1) and Afadil (Rank 2) dominate the figures and the winner is very likely to come from that pair.
Brave Knight sets the standard on ratings and comes from a yard that targets these races well. He’s progressive and likeable, but there is a clear concern. His run style suggests he travels prominently and has a habit of weakening late. Stepping up in trip in a race that looks set to be run at a proper gallop is not an obvious positive.
Afadil, on the other hand, looks tailor-made for how this race could unfold. The Comment Shaper points to a solid pace with pressure building behind a lone front-runner. That should favour horses who can settle and finish strongly. Afadil is one of the standout late finishers in the field and has been shaping as though this longer trip will suit. He is also expected to be better positioned tactically than some of the other closers.
The rest need improvement. Royal Way and Bethpage both have strong finishing profiles but lack the ratings and overall consistency of the top two. They look more like place players unless the principals underperform.
This comes down to a simple call. If the race turns tactical, Brave Knight probably has the class to win. If it is run at an honest pace, which looks more likely, then it sets up for something finishing late.
Afadil fits that bill best.
Selection: Afadil (FR)
Saver: Brave Knight
Strength: Medium