This 1m amateur riders’ handicap looks set to be run at a fierce pace, and that should decide the race.
The Comment Shaper points to a very strong shape, with three front runners, plenty of prominent racers and a high collapse risk. In simple terms, too many want to get on with it. In a 22-runner field on good to soft ground, that is often the perfect recipe for a closer to come through late.
That brings the focus straight onto King Of York.
He is the TimeWise Master Rank 1, and that is where the analysis should start. The top-ranked horse has the best strike-rate historically, and in this race he also looks well suited by how things may unfold. He is a reliable type, usually ridden with restraint, and both the Timeform pace notes and Comment Shaper suggest that hold-up or mid-division runners should be favoured once the early speed begins to crack.
His recent Southwell form is solid. He has been holding his level well through the winter, winning over 7f and running creditably in defeat since. The slight concern is that he may be a little sharper at 7f than a mile, but this looks the sort of race where a strong pace will help him settle and bring his finishing effort into play. In a contest likely to fall apart late, that is a big asset.
The main danger is Rising Force, who is Rank 2 on TimeWise Master and the only serious alternative on the numbers. He was third in this race last year, arrives in fair nick, and he too has the profile of one who should be staying on when others have cried enough. He makes plenty of appeal as the saver.
Dapper Gee Gee is respected on recent all-weather form, but he is not ideally placed tactically. He is one of the runners likely to be involved in the early battle, and in a race where the pace could collapse, that makes life harder. He is good enough to go well, but the race shape is not in his favour.
Asian Journey will have supporters after a string of placed efforts and Timeform makes him the headline pick, but he is still a maiden and only sixth on the HRB ratings. He should run his race and could easily hit the frame, though there are stronger win profiles against him.
The interesting lurker is Oilisa. She was progressive when last seen, softer ground will suit, and she is another with a strong late-finisher profile. The issue is that she sits lower down the HRB rankings than ideal, so while she is a danger, she is not the main call.
This race looks likely to be won by a horse delivered late rather than one forcing the pace. On that basis, the one that makes most appeal is the top-rated horse with the right run style.
Selection: King Of York
Main danger: Rising Force
Confidence: Medium