This is not a race to get clever with. The strongest place to start is the HRB TimeWise Master rankings, because the top two positions have by far the best strike-rate and, more often than not, the winner is sitting right there.
On that basis, the race centres on Packetofbiscuits and Golden Strike.
Packetofbiscuits is the clear Rank 1 on HRB and comes here in cracking form after two wins and a narrow second at Southwell. On figures alone, he is the obvious starting point. He is progressive, he is solid, and he has every right to be competitive again. The issue is not ability. The issue is the shape of the race.
Comment Shaper points to a weak pace setup. There is no obvious front runner, very little early pressure and plenty of runners who are likely to be ridden patiently. In races like that, strong hold-up horses can find themselves with too much ground to make up. That matters because Packetofbiscuits is exactly that type. He finishes well, but he may not get the race run to suit.
That is why Golden Strike makes more appeal.
He is Rank 2 on HRB, which is the only alternative slot worth taking seriously against the top-rated horse, and he looks the cleaner fit for how this race might unfold. His recent form is solid, he has won and placed well in similar contests, and his latest run suggested he is still progressing. He finished strongly behind a subsequent winner and shaped like a horse ready to go in again.
Just as importantly, he does not look quite so dependent on a strong gallop as some of these. In a race lacking obvious pace, that could be decisive. At Doncaster over 7f, especially in a field this size, you do not want to be giving away too much ground and hoping for miracles late on.
Grabajabba is the one to fear most. He is only Rank 3, so there has to be caution, but there is enough there to think he can run well. Timeform made the point that the likely pace may work in his favour, and his latest run hinted he had more to give. He is respected, but the betting call should still come from the top two in the ratings.
The rest look like they need a fair bit to fall right. Tactical Plan has some claims and could go well, while Quest For Fun and Backspin are the sort who may finish late without ever quite looking the winner. But for win purposes, this should stay focused on the head of the HRB list.
Verdict
Golden Strike gets the nod.
He is close enough to the top on ratings, arrives in form, and looks better suited than Packetofbiscuits to a race that may lack pace and turn tactical. The favourite on the figures is respected, but the setup just tilts this towards the number two.
Selection: Golden Strike
Saver: Packetofbiscuits
Confidence: Medium