The 4.27 at Downpatrick, the Randox Ulster National Handicap Chase, looks a proper staying handicap and the shape of the race matters plenty.
The Comment Shaper points to a race with strong early pressure, no obvious dominant front runner and a high collapse risk. That is often the sort of set-up where the winner is the horse who settles, jumps, keeps out of trouble and finishes best late on. It does not usually pay to get too clever in these races. You want a proven stayer with the right recent profile.
On the HRB TimeWise Master figures, Uncle Pat is the standout. He is Rank 1 and clear of the field on the totals, and that matters. The top-ranked horse on these figures has the best historical strike-rate, so the analysis should start there and only move away if there is a very strong reason. In this case, there is not.
His latest run reads well for this. He was a solid second in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown over 27 furlongs on heavy ground, and that effort suggested that this longer trip will suit. He looks like a horse who keeps finding rather than one who empties when the pressure comes on. In a race where the pace could fall apart, that is a major asset.
The other big positive is his likely run style. He is not one that needs to force the issue. The Comment Shaper marks him down as a horse who can finish strongly, and that looks ideal here. Around Downpatrick, in a race of this nature, conserving energy early can be half the battle.
There are dangers, of course. Flash De Touzaine is Rank 2 on HRB and that makes him the main alternative by default. He has useful staying form and has run well in strong handicap company before. The problem is that he is older, vulnerable to a younger leg, and his profile suggests he can weaken when the race gets serious. That makes him more of a saver than a confident win pick.
Fishery Lane is interesting and clearly has upside. Willie Mullins saddles him as well, and he shaped with promise at Leopardstown. He could improve for the step up in trip, but he sits outside the top two on the HRB rankings and that tempers enthusiasm. He is respected, but not enough to dislodge the main selection.
Rexem and St Denis’s Well also have bits and pieces in their favour, but both look more like place players than the one you want to rely on for the win.
So the race comes back to a simple conclusion. Uncle Pat has the best HRB rating, the right recent staying form, a race shape that should suit, and the profile of a horse still capable of another step forward in a staying handicap. In a contest where plenty will be found wanting late on, he looks the most likely one to keep going.
Selection: Uncle Pat
Main danger: Flash De Touzaine
Verdict: Medium strength