This is a proper staying handicap on heavy ground and it will take some getting. The Comment Shaper makes it clear: no obvious front runner, strong early pressure, and a race likely to favour those finishing best. In short, this turns into a slog — not a sprint.
The key angle, as always, is the HRB TimeWise ratings. The numbers don’t lie over time — and they point firmly to the top two:
Dippedinmoonlight (Rank 1)
Dawn Rising (Rank 2)
Everything else is playing catch-up.
Race Shape Matters
With no confirmed leader, the pace will be shared. That usually leads to a truly run race rather than a tactical crawl, especially on heavy ground where positioning becomes less important than stamina.
The data backs that up:
Strong shape
High finishing scores
Moderate collapse risk
This is exactly the kind of race where solid stayers grind past weaker types late on.
The Main Players
Dippedinmoonlight looks tailor-made for this.
He’s already a course and distance winner on soft, arrives here fit from hurdling, and shapes like a horse who will relish a test like this. His stamina is proven well beyond this trip, and crucially, he’s the clear HRB top-rated. In these races, that’s a major edge.
Dawn Rising is the class act. A Cesarewitch second reads well in this company and he’ll be finishing strongly. But he’s now a 9-year-old, has to give weight, and has a habit of finding one too good. He’s a danger, not the percentage call.
The Rest
There are plenty flagged as strong finishers — Mordor, Navy Waters, Zoffman — but they all come with issues. Either inconsistent, not quite good enough on ratings, or lacking a convincing win profile.
Kizlyar will attract attention off Timeform comments, but sitting near the bottom of the HRB rankings is a serious negative. That’s not where winners usually come from in this type of race.
Taipan is likely to be involved early but has a long-standing habit of weakening when it matters.
The Bottom Line
This race will be decided by stamina and resilience, not speed or tactics. When that’s the case, you stick with:
Proven in the ground
Proven over the trip (or further)
Top of the ratings
That leads you straight to one horse.
Selection: Dippedinmoonlight
Saver: Dawn Rising
Strength: STRONG