This is not a race to overcomplicate. The starting point should be the HRB TimeWise Master ratings, and they point firmly towards the top two in the list. Lone Star is ranked number one, with Fairly Fulling next best, and that matters because the top two ranks produce the bulk of winners in these races.
The shape of the race looks weak. Comment Shaper shows no obvious front runner, very little early pressure and a low chance of the race falling apart late on. In plain terms, this is unlikely to be strongly run, so it should suit a horse that can sit handy enough rather than one needing a proper pace collapse.
That brings Lone Star right into focus. He is the top-rated horse on HRB, his style suggests he should be able to race close enough to the action, and his form last summer reads well in the context of a Class 5 handicap hurdle. He won at Market Rasen and followed that with a good second at Uttoxeter. On that form, he is well up to winning this. The absence is the obvious concern, but in a race of this standard I am happy to trust the rating.
Fairly Fulling is the danger. She comes here after winning over course and distance 17 days ago, beating Glory Hights in the process, and she is clearly thriving. The issue is that she is now 7 lb higher, and in a race that may not be run to suit hold-up types, she could find things slightly harder this time. She is still the main alternative, but not quite the one I want on top.
Tyson will have supporters after Timeform put him up, and there is logic to that. He has not been with Dan Skelton long and shaped as though he might be coming to hand last time. But he is only fifth on the HRB list, and the race shape is not ideal for a horse expected to come from off the pace. He could improve, but he is not the percentage play.
Joto is another who should run her race, but she has become a bit exposed as a nearly horse. She keeps finding the frame without looking an obvious winner, and again the likely pace of the race is not perfect for one expected to finish late.
Glory Hights is solid enough and has a very good Newcastle record, but he was behind Fairly Fulling last time and looks more likely to place than win again.
So the answer looks fairly straightforward. The ratings say Lone Star, the likely tactical setup suits him better than some of the closers, and this is the sort of race where sticking with the strongest HRB rank makes most sense.
Selection: Lone Star
Main danger: Fairly Fulling
Confidence: Medium