This is not a race to get too clever with. In these handicap hurdles, the top of the HRB TimeWise Master figures matters, and Shellrunforbriggs comes out clear Rank 1. That is the starting point and, in truth, probably the finishing point as well.
Her total of 274.5 is well clear of the field and that matters because the top-ranked horse is historically where most winners come from. Roccabaker is the only one close enough on the numbers to be taken seriously as an alternative, while the rest need more than a little faith.
The race shape is also useful. Comment Shaper points to Rebel Cowgirl as the sole likely front runner, but the key point is that she is not expected to be a strong one. There is no obvious burn-up on the cards, and the collapse risk is low. That makes life harder for the exaggerated hold-up types who may be relying on the race falling apart in front of them.
That is one reason Shellrunforbriggs appeals. She should be able to sit handily enough without getting involved in anything silly early. Her latest run came in a Listed mares’ novice chase over this trip, which is stronger form than most of these can offer, and she shaped well in finishing second. Back over hurdles, with the hood back on, she looks to have the class edge and the right tactical setup.
There are dangers, of course. Westandtogether is progressive and Timeform make her the one to beat after her Navan win, where she kept on strongly over a similar trip. She is lightly raced and open to improvement, but she is also the sort who may be played late, and this does not look an ideal race shape for a deep closer. She is respected, but she is opposable at the likely price.
Roccabaker is the obvious saver from the ratings. She is Rank 2, she stays, and she has already shown she can be effective at this trip. The concern is much the same as with Westandtogether. She is a strong finisher, but this may not be run to suit. In a race lacking a likely pace collapse, she could be doing her best work when it is already too late.
Dolly Watkins is another who will attract support after a good comeback second at Down Royal. She is entitled to improve for that and her late-finishing profile is obvious from Comment Shaper, but again the shape of the race is not a massive help. She looks more place material than the most likely winner.
Classy Cc is interesting because she ran a personal best in first-time blinkers last time and now steps up in trip. That gives her a case, but she is only fifth on the HRB figures and still has to prove she will be as effective under these conditions over this longer trip.
Rebel Cowgirl could get a soft lead, which always makes her dangerous, but Comment Shaper is not convinced she finishes her races strongly. Over this longer trip on testing ground, that looks a fair concern. She may give them something to aim at but is far from certain to see it out well enough.
There are also a few with bits and pieces in their favour. Westernersunrise gets first-time cheekpieces, which is a notable change, but her latest run here was poor and she does not look solid enough. Elsannah shaped as though the recent Navan run would bring her on for a new yard, and she is one to note, but she still has plenty to prove after a long absence. Chemdawg gets blinkers back on, though recent non-completions make her hard to trust.
When you strip it all back, the race comes down to a simple question: do you side with the clear top-rated mare who has the best recent piece of form and the right tactical profile, or do you go hunting for something more speculative? For me, the answer is straightforward.
Shellrunforbriggs is the percentage call. She has the best figures, arrives here off stronger form than most, and should be positioned in the right part of the race. In a contest where several of the obvious dangers may be hostage to pace, she looks the soundest option.
Selection: Shellrunforbriggs
Main danger: Roccabaker
Verdict: Medium