This is not a race to get cute with. In these low-grade sellers, the safest place to start is usually the top of the ratings, and that points straight at Danehill Star.
He sits clear at the head of the HRB TimeWise Master figures, and that matters. Rank 1 is where most winners come from, and in this field he has the most solid recent form as well. He won at Lingfield in February, then finished second on his last two starts, including behind a thriving rival at Southwell on Saturday. Back in calmer waters, he is the one they all have to beat.
There is a small warning flag, though. Comment Shaper suggests he is the likely lone front runner in a race where the pace could still be strong enough underneath him. Several prominent racers are expected to sit close, and that could make life harder than it first appears. If Danehill Star gets taken out of his comfort zone early, he becomes vulnerable late on.
That brings Marinakis firmly into the picture. He is Rank 2 on HRB, which is exactly where the main danger should usually come from, and the shape of the race could suit him better than the favourite. He is flagged by Comment Shaper as a strong late finisher, and his recent course-and-distance third was perfectly respectable. In a race where the likely leader may have to work, Marinakis looks the one most likely to pick up the pieces.
Man Is King has claims on recent form and is the only other one with a ratings profile that gives him a chance, but he is still behind the top two and does not have as strong a case overall. Tiger Beetle is interesting only because both Comment Shaper and Timeform hint the pace may collapse late, which would suit his finishing style, but his current form is hard to trust. Wyvern also has a late run in him, though he looks more likely to run on into a place than win.
There are a few bits of kit and stable news to note. Abila goes in first-time cheekpieces, Phyllis Burton has a first-time hood, and Versatile has cheekpieces refitted on debut for James Owen after leaving another yard. That makes Versatile mildly interesting from a market point of view, but on what he has shown so far he still has plenty to prove.
The previous runnings of this race do not suggest a shock is needed. Exposed, battle-hardened types tend to do well, and that fits Danehill Star perfectly. He also won this race last year, which is a fair pointer in a contest of this nature.
The case against him is the race shape. The case for him is everything else.
Verdict: Danehill Star is the percentage call. Marinakis is the danger if the pace gets him.
Selection: Danehill Star
Confidence: Medium