This does not look a race to get clever with.
Road To Wembley is the clear pick in the 4.00 at Southwell. He tops the HRB TimeWise Master ratings by a fair margin, Timeform have him as the one to beat, and the race shape looks ideal for the way he runs. In a maiden like this, that is usually enough.
His Warwick debut over hurdles reads well. He travelled like a useful horse, jumped well enough for a first go, and was only collared late by a horse with a bit of promise. That is the best piece of hurdle form on show and, with normal improvement, he should take plenty of beating here. He was fairly useful on the Flat as well, so there is already a solid level of ability in the locker.
The HRB figures back that up. He is ranked number one and that matters. The top-ranked horse is where you should start in these races, and more often than not it is where you should finish as well. Novelista is the obvious second choice as the rank two horse. He has some Flat class, stays well, and could improve from his Ascot hurdle debut, but at this stage he is still playing catch-up.
Top Coeur is the other one with a realistic chance of getting involved, but only as a place contender for me. He showed some fair form in Ireland, though his first run for Christian Williams was poor and he now needs to bounce back. He is not without hope, but he has more to prove than the two above him in the ratings.
The race shape adds another tick for Road To Wembley. There is no obvious front runner and the likely pace looks modest rather than searching. Comment Shaper points to a race that should not fall apart late, and that suits a horse with a strong finish who does not need a frantic gallop to be effective. He looks adaptable, and Timeform make much the same point with their pace note.
At a bigger price, Corsican Caper is not completely dismissed. He improved from his hurdling debut when third at Doncaster and is one of the stronger late finishers on the Comment Shaper view. But he still has ground to make up and looks more an each-way player than a win bet.
The rest look up against it. Paragon has shown too little, Promethean has not taken to hurdles, Lou Des Bordes needs a massive step forward, and Papillondelumiere is being asked a lot on Rules debut, even with the first-time tongue strap.
Recent renewals of this race suggest you do not need to force a fancy angle either. Winners have generally come from the front end of the market, and this year the obvious horse is obvious for a reason.
Everything points the same way. Road To Wembley has the best hurdle form, the best ratings profile, and the right setup. He is the one they all have to beat.
Selection: Road To Wembley
Main danger: Novelista
Confidence: Strong