This looks a straightforward Class 4 on paper, but the pace map muddies things slightly and it’s easy to overcomplicate it.
The HRB TimeWise ratings point us in the right direction immediately. Jubilant (FR) sits top, with Passing Pleasure the clear second. Historically, that’s where you want to be focusing—most winners come from these two, and there’s little reason to get creative beyond them.
The Comment Shaper suggests a “strong shape” with some pressure behind a lone front runner, but Timeform counters that with the likelihood of a steady pace. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. Jubilant is the only habitual front runner, but he’s not especially strong in that role, and there are enough prominent types to ensure this isn’t a crawl.
Passing Pleasure brings the most solid and reliable profile into the race. He’s improved markedly since joining his current yard, his recent figures are the best on offer, and he shapes like a horse that will stay this trip well. Tactically, he’s versatile enough to sit handy or come from just off the pace, which is a major asset given the uncertainty around how this will be run. He doesn’t need everything to fall perfectly, and that’s often the difference in races like this.
Jubilant, as the top-rated, demands respect. If he gets an uncontested lead and settles, he could take pegging back. However, he’s not bombproof—his stamina looked stretched last time and his overall profile lacks consistency. He’s a danger, but not one to hang your hat on.
Of the rest, Diamond Geezer will attract interest with first-time blinkers and a strong finishing profile, but he’s likely to be played late and may find himself with too much to do if the pace doesn’t collapse. Campaign Trail and Ocean Conquest have bits and pieces in their favour but lack the overall strength of profile needed to win this consistently.
In the end, this is about siding with the horse who ticks the most boxes and can cope with different race scenarios.
Passing Pleasure does exactly that.
Verdict: Strong