Sporting Hero sets the standard in Dundalk sprint
The 5.45 at Dundalk looks a proper, competitive 6f handicap, but the race does not need overcomplicating.
Sporting Hero is the one to beat.
The HRB TimeWise Master figures make that plain enough. He is the clear Rank 1 horse, and that matters. The top-rated runner in these figures is where most of the focus should sit, especially in this type of race, and he has a decent edge on the numbers over the rest. Inishfallen is the obvious Rank 2 alternative, but Sporting Hero is the one with the strongest overall profile.
His latest run over this course and distance was solid. He made all, beat Inishfallen by three-quarters of a length and never really looked like folding. The 4 lb rise is fair. More importantly, that win came on his first start for William Durkan, so there is every chance there is still a bit more to come from him for the new yard.
Comment Shaper adds an interesting angle. The race shape points to a strong pace, a likely lone front runner and a fair bit of late-finishing pressure in the field. Normally that would raise a question over a horse coming off a front-running win, but Dundalk is a place where pace can still be a major weapon if it is used well. Sporting Hero does not have to lead recklessly. He has enough tactical speed to hold a good position and that should count for plenty.
The main danger is Inishfallen. He is the only one who really makes sense as the serious alternative. He is the HRB Rank 2 horse, he shaped well behind Sporting Hero last time, and the booking of C. T. Keane is an obvious positive. He is running consistently for his current trainer and looks sure to be finishing off well again. If Sporting Hero gets pressured too hard, Inishfallen is the one most likely to benefit.
I’m Spartacus will have his supporters, and rightly so. Timeform prefers him after his comfortable C&D win last month. He is well drawn and clearly likes the place. But from an HRB point of view he is not in the top two, and that tempers enthusiasm. He is respected, but not preferred.
Of the bigger-priced runners, Clonmacash is the one who makes most appeal. Comment Shaper flags him as one of the stronger late finishers, and Timeform also gives him a fair mention. He should be staying on when others have cried enough, but whether that is enough to win is another matter.
There are also a few headgear points worth noting. Sporting Hero keeps the visor, which has helped. Clonmacash and Amemri are also in visors, while Rappell and Dontspoilasale wear blinkers. No dramatic change there, but it is part of the overall picture.
When all the pieces are put together, the answer is straightforward enough. The best HRB horse is in form, has already won over course and distance, and comes here after confirming he can dominate this sort of contest.
Sporting Hero is the selection.
Inishfallen is the saver.
Verdict
Selection: Sporting Hero
Confidence: Medium