This 3m handicap chase at Clonmel looks set up for a closer, not a tearaway. The Comment Shaper picture is pretty clear: there are several runners who like to go forward, the early pace looks strong, and the collapse risk is high. In a race like that, I do not want to be with the horses helping force it. I want the one arriving late.
That brings me straight to Snow Punt.
From an HRB TimeWise angle he is exactly where you want to start. He is ranked number one, and that matters. The top-rated horse is where the bulk of the win expectation sits, and this is not the race to get clever and start fishing too far down the list. He also brings the right recent chase form, having gone very close at Limerick last time, and the return to this longer trip looks a plus rather than a problem.
The race shape is a major part of the case. Snow Punt is not one for forcing the issue. He is far more likely to be played late, and with the front end looking busy, that should suit. Comment Shaper flags him as a strong late finisher, and that fits what this contest looks likely to become: a stamina test where a few of the pace horses cry enough from the last two fences.
The obvious alternative is Baldur’s Gate, who is the rank two horse on HRB and has the backing of the Timeform verdict. He ran a fair race when third at Limerick and is on a workable mark. He makes obvious appeal and is the only one I would seriously consider against the selection. The concern is that he may get dragged into the race a bit earlier than ideal, whereas Snow Punt looks the stronger fit for a contest that could become messy late on.
There are others with bits and pieces in their favour. Mount Shenshan caught the eye here last week and is well enough treated if building on that run. Without Exception has late finishing qualities, but he is out of the handicap and still has something to prove over fences. Is Charlie Around has recent form, but his style suggests he could be part of the early battle rather than the one picking up the pieces.
That is the key point in this race. I am not interested in the ones likely to help create the strong gallop. Horses such as Long Road, Made In The Woods and possibly Is Charlie Around look vulnerable if they go too hard too soon. Around Clonmel, on soft ground, over this sort of trip, that can catch up with them very quickly.
There is one caveat. Timeform notes that hold-up horses are not usually favoured over this trip here. That is a fair warning. But pace maps are there to help spot the exceptions, and this looks like one. When there is enough pressure up front, the usual bias can be turned on its head. This race has a good chance of doing exactly that.
So the view is straightforward. Snow Punt is the top-rated horse, arrives in form, looks suited by the trip, and has the right run style for the shape of the race. Baldur’s Gate is the saver and the main danger, but the one I want on side is Snow Punt.
Selection: Snow Punt
Main danger: Baldur’s Gate
Confidence: Strong