Bearami Creek sets the standard in a trappy Clonmel mares’ handicap
The 6.30 at Clonmel is not a race to get cute in. It is a low-grade mares’ handicap, plenty arrive with holes in their profile, and the right play is to start with the ratings and then check whether the race shape gives the top ones a problem.
On the HRB TimeWise Master figures, Bearami Creek is the clear starting point. She is Rank 1, and that matters. In these races the top two on the list provide the bulk of winners, so there is no sense spreading wide and trying to make a case for half the field. Bearami Creek has the best total, she has already won a handicap, and her Punchestown fifth last autumn reads well enough in the context of this weaker contest. Timeform’s view is straightforward too: she was in good form when last seen and is expected to be thereabouts. That is the profile of the horse to beat.
The niggle is the shape of the race. Comment Shaper points to no obvious front runner and only moderate early pressure. That suggests this may not be run to suit a deep closer. Bearami Creek is usually ridden from mid-division or off the pace, and in a muddling contest that is never ideal. Even so, there is a difference between a negative and a reason to desert the most solid horse in the line-up. In a race full of exposed or unreliable types, she still makes most appeal.
The obvious alternative is Dolly Watkins, who is Rank 2 on HRB, but there is a catch. She is only a reserve and comes here just two days after winning at Limerick. If she gets in, she brings sharp recent form and arrives in better nick than most of these. The problem is that she has a penalty to carry, a quick turnaround to cope with, and her run style suggests she too may be hostage to a steady pace. She is dangerous, but not enough to push Bearami Creek aside.
Of the others, Might Be The One looks the most sensible threat. She has been running well in defeat, she is more likely than most to sit close enough to the pace, and that could be a real asset in a race lacking an obvious leader. She does not have the same upside on the figures as the selection, but tactically she makes sense. Ode To Joy is another with claims after her recent Clonmel third, though she is another who may be inconvenienced if they crawl. Wild Wild Wind is interesting from a pace point of view because she could find herself handily placed, but she does not look as strong at the finish as the principals.
There are one or two that may attract support for less obvious reasons. Concert Party has a Flat background and could improve now switched into handicap company, while Ellies Rock has bits of form that give her a squeak. Even so, both need a leap of faith and this is not the race for that. The best approach is to stay with the proven numbers.
So the call is simple. Bearami Creek is the one with the strongest overall case. She is top-rated, she has form in the book that is good enough, and she drops into a race where very few arrive with a straightforward profile. The pace scenario is not perfect, but perfection is rare in this grade. She does not need everything in her favour to win a race like this.
Selection: Bearami Creek
Main danger: Might Be The One
Confidence: Medium