The 4.10 at Newcastle is a deep and valuable handicap, but this does not look a race to get too clever with. The strongest starting point is the HRB TimeWise Master ratings, and they point straight at Regal Ulixes.
He sits clear at the head of the ratings, and that matters. The top-ranked horse has the best historical strike-rate and, in a race as competitive as this, that is the angle worth trusting rather than trying to manufacture a big-priced story. His latest run at Wolverhampton is easy enough to forgive. He was caught further back than ideal over an inadequate trip and still shaped better than the bare result. Back up to 1m2f, he looks set to get the race run to suit.
The shape of the contest is another plus. Comment Shaper suggests Antrim is the likely lone front runner, with a decent amount of pressure behind and a solid overall pace scenario. Newcastle over this trip often suits horses delivered late, and this field contains plenty of runners who like to be waited with. That should ensure the tempo is honest enough for a finisher to come through. Regal Ulixes fits that pattern well. He is a proven strong finisher, and his profile says this return to 10 furlongs is what he wants.
Timeform are in the same camp. Their verdict is straightforward: Regal Ulixes gets the nod, with his latest effort best ignored and the return to this trip seen as ideal. Andrew Balding’s record at Newcastle only strengthens the case, and his runners in this race have the right sort of profile.
The obvious alternative is Paradias. He is ranked second on HRB, which immediately makes him the only serious saver against the selection. He arrives in good form, is tactically straightforward, and should get a handy position just behind the pace. He stays further, finishes his race well, and will not mind a strongly-run 1m2f. At the prices, he makes more appeal than some of the shorter market rivals chasing him.
Gaucher is respected, but he is only third on the ratings and that is enough to make him opposable as the main selection. He has done well on the all-weather this winter, but this is a tougher race and his run style is not quite as convincing in the context of how this contest is likely to unfold.
Of the bigger prices, Parlando, Bragbor and Duke’s Command all have pieces of form and late-finishing profiles that give them place claims. Bragbor is particularly interesting back at Newcastle and has shaped well here before, while Parlando looks the sort who could be staying on late if the race collapses in front of him. Even so, they are playing for minor honours unless the principals underperform.
The overall view is simple enough. The ratings say Regal Ulixes, the pace setup suits him, the latest run can be marked up, and the return to this trip looks ideal. In a race where plenty will fancy they have found a value angle, the percentage call is still the right one.
Selection: Regal Ulixes
Saver: Paradias
Confidence: Strong