This is a race to treat as a proper staying test at the trip rather than a simple 1m2f handicap. Soft ground, a big field and a strong pace setup should make it attritional, and that brings race shape right to the front of the analysis.
Comment Shaper says there is likely to be a single front runner, but the wider pace pressure is still strong and the collapse risk is high. That is important. In races like this, the obvious pace angle can look attractive on paper, but if the field closes in from halfway, it often sets things up for one ridden with patience.
The HRB TimeWise Master ratings tell you where to start. Norwalk Havoc is ranked number one, with Eastwatch number two. That matters because the top two ranks have by far the strongest historical edge and this is not the sort of race where it pays to get too inventive too early.
Norwalk Havoc has the highest total and is the likely lone front runner. There is a fair case for him on pure ratings, and he is unexposed at the trip, but the shape of the race makes life awkward. A soft-ground Curragh handicap with a strong finish profile across the field is not always kind to one trying to boss matters from the front. He is respected because of the rank, but he is not an obvious bet at the prices if the race unfolds as expected.
That points the argument towards Eastwatch. His second in the Irish Lincolnshire here on reappearance was one of the best recent pieces of form on offer. He travelled well, saw it out strongly over a mile on heavy ground and pulled clear of most of the field with the winner. Back up in trip, he looks like one who should cope well with this test, and Timeform also have him at the head of affairs. He does not need to lead, he handles conditions and he arrives match fit. In a race where plenty have something to prove, that is a solid profile.
Starford is the other one who commands obvious respect. He progressed nicely last year, his finishing style should suit this setup and he still has the potential to do better as a four-year-old. The slight issue is that he is not in the top two on HRB totals, and in this approach that matters. He is a danger, but more as the one to chase the selection home than the one to build the race around.
Ribee will have supporters after winning the Irish Lincolnshire here, and rightly so, but there is enough in his latest run at Naas to suggest this may not be as straightforward. He looked unable to sustain his effort in deeper company there, and while he is clearly in form, the combination of trip, ground and race shape may leave him vulnerable late on.
A few at bigger prices have bits and pieces in their favour. Akecheta is interesting because Timeform’s pace note says the likely end-to-end gallop should suit her much better than some of the more prominent racers. Chica Guerrera has solid course form and could outrun her odds if ready first time. Narlita is another who should be staying on when some have had enough. But all three need to improve on the main pair if this is run properly.
There are also a few equipment and profile angles worth noting. Cowardofthecounty gets a first-time tongue-tie, but has stamina to prove. Dark Summit is fitted with first-time cheekpieces after his first run for Denis Hogan. Tamam Desert has already changed yards and showed a bit more than the bare result last time, though this still looks a tough ask.
The key here is not to overcomplicate it. The ratings say start with the top two. The race shape says oppose the one most likely to be exposed by the setup. The recent form says one horse arrives here with a proper piece of current Curragh evidence in the book.
Selection: Eastwatch
He has the right mix of current form, conditions, tactical flexibility and ratings support to take this. Norwalk Havoc is the obvious saver on the figures, but Eastwatch looks the one most likely to get the race run to suit.
Verdict: Medium