This is a typical median auction maiden on paper, but the conditions – 1m2f on soft ground for three-year-old fillies – make it much more about who is bred for the job than what they’ve shown so far.
A lot of these have either run once or not at all. That puts the emphasis squarely on pedigree, and more importantly, whether that pedigree matches today’s test.
The Market Has It Mostly Right… But Not Completely
At the head of the betting, Chasing Paradise, Chablis Rock, and Mistress Of Tyrone dominate. That makes sense. They all bring either strong form or strong pages.
But there’s a difference between solid contenders and value bets, and that’s where this race gets interesting.
The Obvious One: Chasing Paradise
She sets the form standard and has a straightforward pedigree for this.
Churchill gives a reliable 8–10f base
Dam side points to further
Already shaped like she’ll improve for this trip
No issues. But at around 2/1, you’re paying for what’s already visible. There’s no hidden angle here. She’s solid, but she’s not underpriced.
The One the Market Found: Chablis Rock
Earlier prices made her very interesting. Less so now.
By Sioux Nation, which can mislead people into thinking speed
But the Montjeu dam side is the real story – strong stamina influence
Half-sister to Coltrane, which significantly upgrades the page
Her Gowran run already hinted at this: she stayed on over 1m and looked like she wanted further.
At 5/2, she’s no longer a steal, but she still makes plenty of sense.
The Best Pedigree in the Race: Mistress Of Tyrone
If you’re judging purely on pedigree depth, this is the standout.
Strong Saxon Warrior influence for middle distances
Dam has already produced multiple winners, including 1m4f–2m types
Yard knows the family well and tends to have them ready
The only question is lack of experience. But in a race like this, that’s not a negative if the pedigree is strong enough.
At around 11/4, she’s fair rather than generous, but she’s one of the most logical winners.
The Conditions Horse: Totally Puzzled
This is a more specific angle.
Sea The Moon × Shirocco is a proper soft-ground, middle-distance cross
Family has already produced performers over 1m2f+
Shaped with promise on debut despite greenness
She may not have the class edge of the top three, but she is very well suited to conditions.
At 4/1, she’s about right.
The One the Market Is Still Missing: Nathema
This is where the value sits.
By Nathaniel, one of the best sires in the race for soft ground and 10f+
Dubawi as damsire adds class and balance
Debut was quiet, but not terminal
This is exactly the type the market often underestimates:
a slow-starting, stamina-bred filly stepping up in trip on soft ground.
At 16/1, she doesn’t need to be the best horse in the race to be overpriced. She just needs to improve in line with her pedigree.
The Rest
Aravalli – Solid Australia profile, should improve, but no obvious edge at the price
Premier Princess – Speed-leaning pedigree; this trip looks a stretch
Sofi’s Gift / Music And Song / Arizona Star – No real pedigree case for this setup
Stellar Moment – Too little substance in the page to get involved
Final View
This is a race where the market has broadly identified the right horses, but has not priced them equally well.
Most likely winner (pedigree + logic): Mistress Of Tyrone
Most solid but short: Chasing Paradise
Now correctly priced: Chablis Rock
Best fit for conditions: Totally Puzzled
Best value angle: Nathema
If you strip away hype and focus on suitability, one thing stands out:
The race is full of obvious profiles – but Nathema is the one still being priced as if pedigree doesn’t matter.