This 2m Pertemps Series Final looks the sort of handicap where the pace is likely to tell the story.
The Comment Shaper points to a very strong shape, with two front runners, six prominent racers and a high collapse risk. In plain terms, there should be no hiding place here. They are likely to go hard enough early, and that gives a clear edge to anything able to sit just off the speed and finish properly.
That immediately puts a small question mark over Bucephalus. He is the HRB TimeWise Master rank 1, and that matters because the top-rated runner on this scale is historically the most likely winner. He also comes here in form after making all at Newcastle and had already shown he handles Haydock when second over course and distance in December. On ratings alone, he is the one they all have to beat.
The issue is tactical, not numerical. He is one of the likely pace angles in a race where the early pressure looks strong. In a four-runner race last time he was able to dictate. This is a much tougher ask. If he gets taken on, his chance becomes more vulnerable than the bare ratings suggest.
That makes We’re Red And Blue the percentage call. He is HRB rank 2, and on this method that is the only meaningful alternative to rank 1. His recent form is rock solid. He won at Huntingdon, chased home Williethebuilder at Kempton and then ran a cracker when third in the Imperial Cup at Sandown. That is strong handicap form and it has come in competitive races.
Just as importantly, his profile fits the likely shape of this contest. He does not need to force the pace, and the Comment Shaper marks him down as a horse who often finishes well. In a race where the front end could get heated, that is exactly the type you want on your side.
Mr McLoughlan is respected. He is HRB rank 3, and there is enough in his profile to think a proper pace will suit. But the long-term bias says to build the race around the top two, not to overcomplicate matters by trying to be too clever lower down the list.
Dance And Glance also has some appeal as a late finisher, while Ice In The Veins is interesting if reverting to positive tactics. Still, both have more to prove than the first two on the combined ratings and race-shape evidence.
So the call is straightforward. The numbers say start with Bucephalus, but the likely setup of the race says We’re Red And Blue gets the better run of it. In a strongly run Haydock handicap, that could be enough to decide it.
Selection: We’re Red And Blue
Main danger: Bucephalus
Confidence: Medium