This looks a proper staying handicap, but not a messy one.
Comment Shaper points to Jakar Du Moulin as the likely lone front runner, with plenty sitting handy behind. That matters because it suggests the race should be run at an honest pace without completely falling apart. In that sort of set-up, the winner is far more likely to come from the front end or the prominent group than from one played late out the back.
That immediately puts Jakar Du Moulin, Super Survivor and Blue Carpet at the centre of things.
From an HRB TimeWise Master point of view, the race should be built around the top two. That is where the strongest historical edge sits, and the ratings line up as:
1. Super Survivor
2. Blue Carpet
That is the right place to start, and probably the right place to finish.
Super Survivor sets the standard
There is plenty to like about Super Survivor. He is the clear Rank 1, arrives here in form, has already won over course and distance and backed that up with another staying success at Warwick. Comment Shaper also has him down as a reliable prominent type who finishes his race well.
He is the solid one.
The issue is that the market knows him, the handicapper knows him and he now looks more exposed than some of these. Racing Post also makes the fair point that this slightly sharper test may not be absolutely ideal after winning over 3m2f last time. He is a major player, but not bombproof.
Blue Carpet looks the improver
Blue Carpet makes most appeal.
He is Rank 2 on HRB, which is the only serious alternative to Rank 1 under a disciplined ratings approach, and he has the profile of a horse still going the right way. He has done little wrong over hurdles, shaped well in handicaps and took a nice step forward when winning at Wetherby. The key point is that he still looks like a horse with more to come.
That is what makes him so interesting here.
Comment Shaper also helps his case. He is likely to race prominently enough without getting dragged into any battle for the lead, and he is marked down as a strong finisher. In a race where the pace should be fair rather than frantic, that is a very handy set-up.
He does not need everything to collapse. He just needs a clean trip and a bit more improvement.
Jakar Du Moulin is the danger from the front
If there is one horse capable of upsetting the top two, it is Jakar Du Moulin.
He looks the likely pace angle and could get a pretty straightforward lead. That is always dangerous around Haydock in a staying hurdle if the rider can control things. He is also in form, arrives on the back of two wins and still has some potential.
The concern is the 8lb rise for the Doncaster win. This is tougher, and while he could easily run well, he now has less room for error. He is respected, but I would still want the HRB top two ahead of him.
Walden and Heather Honey have claims, but…
Walden is progressive and his Ascot win was smart. Heather Honey is another with course form and recent improvement on her side. Neither can be dismissed.
Still, both sit just outside the strongest part of the HRB ratings picture, and in a race like this I would rather stay with the horses who have both the ratings and the shape in their favour.
Secret Trix is interesting, but not enough
There is a small case for Secret Trix. He won this race in 2024, is now 1lb lower, has had another wind operation and gets cheekpieces back on. Those are not negatives.
But he still looks more like a place player than the most likely winner, especially with stronger and more progressive options against him.
Verdict
This should set up nicely for Blue Carpet.
He is near the top where the HRB ratings say the winner is most likely to come from, he has the right run style for the expected shape, and unlike some of the others he still looks open to improvement. Super Survivor is the solid danger and the one most likely to make the selection work, while Jakar Du Moulin is the pace threat if allowed too much rope.
Selection
Blue Carpet
Confidence
Medium