This is a proper staying handicap and the data points to a race that will be run at a fair clip, despite only one confirmed front runner. Despereaux is likely to lead, but he’s not strong in that role and with several prominent racers lining up behind him, the pressure should build early. This isn’t shaping like a soft lead job — more a race where positioning and stamina will decide it late on.
The key angle here is the race shape. Comment Shaper flags a strong scenario with a moderate risk of collapse, which immediately brings strong finishers into play. You don’t want to be relying on something that weakens late over this trip.
From a ratings perspective, it’s straightforward. The winner is highly likely to come from the top two on HRB TimeWise, and that gives us Double Click and Despereaux to focus on.
Double Click makes the most appeal. He tops the ratings and has been running consistently well without winning this season. His latest third at Ffos Las came over a shorter trip in testing ground, and he shaped as though this step back up in distance would suit. He’s a strong finisher, and crucially, he’s tactically versatile enough not to get caught too far back. In a race where the pace could fold late, that’s exactly what you want.
Despereaux is the obvious danger. He’s a course-and-distance winner and should get an uncontested lead on paper. The issue is whether he’ll be left alone — the overall pace map suggests he won’t. If he’s pressured, he looks vulnerable in the closing stages.
Woodythewoodpecker will be popular and comes here in good form after two solid seconds, but he’s only fourth on the ratings and may get dragged into the early pace battle. At the prices, he looks short enough given the setup.
Lelantos has the ratings to get involved but has a habit of weakening late, which is a major concern in a race like this. Malago Rose will be finishing late but may simply have too much to do if the pace doesn’t collapse fully.
All things considered, this looks set up for something sitting just off the speed and finishing best.
Double Click is the one that fits the bill.
Selection: Double Click (IRE)
Saver: Despereaux (FR)
Strength: Strong