This is a tidy little Grade 2, but there is no point pretending it is bombproof. There are angles for a few of them. The trick is working out which case stands up best once you strip away the noise.
The starting point has to be the HRB TimeWise Master ratings. Blood Destiny is ranked 1, Found A Fifty ranked 2, and Energumene only ranked 3. That matters. Rank 1 has the best strike-rate historically and Rank 2 is the only serious alternative. Rank 3 can win, but it needs plenty in its favour.
On that basis alone, Blood Destiny and Found A Fifty are the two to focus on.
Comment Shaper adds another useful layer. Saint Sam looks the likely lone front runner, which makes him dangerous in a small field, especially if he gets his own way. But there is also enough in the shape to suggest a horse sitting just off the pace and finishing properly could pick him up late. That suits Blood Destiny, who is flagged as one of the stronger late finishers in the field.
His profile is the cleanest. He comes here off a convincing win at Naas, he is younger than most of these, and he is with Willie Mullins, whose record in this race is hard to ignore. He may not have the back-class of Energumene, but he does not need to. What he has is current form, the right rating rank, and fewer questions to answer.
Found A Fifty is the obvious danger. He won this race last year, so there is a direct piece of course-and-race evidence in his favour. He is also Rank 2, which puts him right where you want a saver to be. The issue is that his recent form is patchy. He has bounced back from poor runs before, so writing him off would be foolish, but he is not the easiest horse to trust fully.
Energumene will have his supporters because he drops back into Grade 2 company and Timeform gives him a narrow vote. That is understandable. At his best he would outclass these. But he is not at his best now, he is 12, and he is only third on the HRB figures. That makes him opposable at the prices.
Saint Sam is the pace angle and could easily give them something to think about if allowed an easy lead. He ran well in this race last year and is not dismissed, but he still looks vulnerable late on if one of the closers is good enough.
The rest look a bit more like supporting cast. Down Memory Lane has ability but comes with jumping concerns, while Sa Fureur has some appeal as a finisher without looking the most likely winner.
So the race comes back to the same point. The ratings say start with the top two. The shape says favour a horse who can travel and finish. Recent form says Blood Destiny is the one arriving with the fewest negatives.
That makes him the selection.
Verdict: Blood Destiny
Main danger: Found A Fifty
Confidence: Medium