Irish Grand National: pace, stamina and who gets home
The 5.00 at Fairyhouse looks exactly what an Irish Grand National should look like: big field, relentless test, and plenty in with some sort of chance on paper. Strip it back, though, and the race becomes easier to read.
The first thing that stands out is the shape. Comment Shaper has this down as a Very Strong Shape with high collapse risk. There are four front runners and enough pace around them to make it very hard for anything to get a soft lead. In a race over this trip, that matters. If they go too hard early, this will stop being a speed test and turn into a survival test from a long way out.
That immediately puts pressure on the obvious pace horses. The Jukebox Kid is progressive and easy to like, but he has been doing his best work on or near the front and this does not look the race for that. He could still run well, but if he gets dragged into a battle early, the final half-mile will find him out. The same worry applies to others expected to be handy. In this sort of race, forcing it can look a good idea until they turn for home.
The HRB TimeWise Master ratings say the race should be built around the top two, and that is usually the right way to play it. Shecouldbeanything is ranked number one and on pure ratings has a major chance. She also fits the likely race setup well enough, with Comment Shaper flagging her as one of the strongest late finishers in the field. If this race falls apart, she is exactly the type that could pick up the pieces.
The problem is the trip. That is the key point. Timeform makes it clear she has shaped best over shorter and was not helped by a thorough stamina test in the Thyestes. This is even more demanding. In a normal staying handicap you might let that slide. In an Irish National, it is dangerous to ignore. She has the profile of a horse who will be passing beaten rivals late, but whether she is the one actually going past everything is another matter.
That brings in One Big Bang, who is second on the HRB figures and makes more sense as the race winner. He is not hard to place in the race either. He is likely to be ridden with patience, he is a strong finisher, and his Cheltenham run in the National Hunt Chase suggested this sort of test is what he wants. He travelled into it, made a mistake four out, and still shaped like a proper stayer. That is solid evidence for a race like this.
He also looks better suited than plenty of these by the likely tempo. While others are using petrol to hold position, he should be doing his best work from the back half of the field. In a race with this much early pressure, that is a major positive, not a minor one.
There are other interesting names. Monbeg Genius has solid staying form and comes here off a respectable Cheltenham effort. C’est Ta Chance is improving and comes from a yard that targets these races well. Argento Boy has ability, but this is a very different test from what he has been facing. At bigger prices, Otoole and Weveallbeencaught have the right late-running style if the race completely collapses. But all of them either sit below the main pair on ratings or have more to prove than the principals.
So the race comes down to a simple call. Do you side with the HRB number one despite the stamina concern, or do you take the number two who looks better built for the actual demands of the contest?
For me, it is One Big Bang.
He is close enough to the top on the ratings to fit the usual winning profile, and unlike some of the others there is no need to talk yourself into the trip. In this race, that is a big edge. He looks the one most likely to be delivered late and still be finding off the bridle when others have had enough.
Selection: One Big Bang
Danger: Shecouldbeanything
Confidence: Medium