The 5.40 at Fairyhouse looks the sort of staying handicap chase where the winner is likely to come from off the speed.
Comment Shaper points to a strong pace from the outset, with two front runners identified and a high collapse risk. In a race over 3m½f on yielding to soft, that matters. If they go too hard early, this can turn into a proper test of stamina and finishing power rather than a simple jumping contest.
That race shape makes life harder for the obvious pace angles and brings the closers firmly into the picture.
From an HRB TimeWise Master point of view, the race should be built around the top two. Savante is ranked number one and Union Station is ranked number two. Historically that is where most winners come from, and there is no sensible reason to get away from that here.
Savante makes the most appeal. He comes here after a comfortable win at Navan, is still lightly raced over fences and looks open to improvement in this sphere. He is a hold-up type with a strong late finish, which is exactly what you want in a race that could fall apart in the final half mile. He has the best overall HRB figure in the field and the profile of a horse still going the right way.
The obvious question is the trip. His recent win came over shorter in a small field, so this is a different test. But he shapes like a horse who should be suited by a stronger-run staying race, and in a contest lacking many solid, progressive handicap chasers, that is enough to keep him on top.
Union Station is the main danger. His Cheltenham fourth reads very well in the context of this race, and he is another who looks likely to be produced late. If the pace completely collapses, he could be the one finishing best of all. The concern is that he is still a maiden and has had a few chances, which just makes him slightly less convincing than Savante as the win pick.
Prends Garde A Toi is respected, especially on Timeform’s view, but he is not quite as solid as the top two when you balance ratings, race shape and recent profile. His Kim Muir run was too bad to be true, but he still has a bit to prove after that. He looks more like a danger than the answer.
Of the rest, Ayiko is interesting. The first-time cheekpieces and tongue-tie could sharpen him up, and he has the sort of late-finishing style that fits the likely shape. He is not quite there on the ratings, though, so he looks more of an each-way player than a win selection.
This is not a race to overcomplicate. The pace setup points to a closer, the ratings say stay with the top two, and Savante has the strongest mix of current form, scope and suitability for how the race should unfold.
Selection: Savante
Main danger: Union Station
Confidence: Medium